Enderle

Some of the most curious e-mail exchanges to emerge from the "Windows Vista Capable" lawsuit involve Rob Enderle, a frequently quoted industry analyst whose affiliations and opinions have been a subject of some controversy in the tech industry. Microsoft is one of Enderle's clients, and his role includes advising the company behind the scenes.

Judging from the e-mails, however, people at Microsoft aren't always interested in his advice. The exchanges provide a rare glimpse of back-channel communications in the technology industry -- and illustrate how they can go awry.

Here's the story: Documents released in the lawsuit this week (PDF, 48 pages) show an extensive debate between Enderle and the Windows team in 2005 over plans for various Windows Vista editions, or SKUs. Enderle contended that consumers would feel slighted by the features missing from Vista Home Basic. Microsoft tried to persuade him that there was plenty of value in that version.

Enderle argued that consumers wouldn't see it that way, noting that he was making the case at Dell's behest.

But when Enderle asked the PC giant for backup, he didn't get any.

"Any assessments you make are best supported/couched in terms of your own analysis and opinion rather than communicated on Dell's behalf," a representative of the computer maker told him.

The analyst threw up his hands.

"Anyway, you'll do what you do," he wrote to Microsoft's Barry Goffe. "Dell will go along; they are just trying to miss a bullet that they, and I, know you can't even see. Let's hope we can mitigate the damage otherwise the industry is really screwed."

Goffe expressed his frustration in a separate message to Windows colleagues about the Enderle exchange.

"Honestly, in all my years of dealing with analysts, I have never been quite so flummoxed," Goffe wrote. "He is just dug in and is not willing to acknowledge reality."

And that was before Enderle brought Steve Ballmer into the mix. Here's the message Enderle sent Microsoft's CEO the next day.

Steve:

This is kind of interesting and short. We had an advisory meeting with Dell where they (made) a huge stink about your plan for Vista SKUs and asked the analysts and reporters to intervene (we were under NDA so the information was contained). So I attempted to do so and spoke with Barry Goffe who was very nice but seemed surprised that Dell had a problem (I've since spoken with the CEO of another OEM who concurred with Dell) and so went back to Dell and got the attached response.

Sitting on the OEM typically is not effective at making a problem like this go away. Dell was never going to publicly roll against you they were just trying to prevent a mistake they, I, and at least one other vendor (not to mention the rest of the rotating hardware advisory board) saw and clearly won't do that again. Personally, I think the focus should be on avoiding the mistake rather than shooting the folks that try to prevent it from happening but maybe that's just me.

Clearly I never should have mentioned that the source was Dell. At some point I'd love to learn how to help you folks without either getting shot myself or getting someone who also depends on me shot. I figure that would be a great survival skill. This is more of an FYI, just something I figured you'd want to know. Let me know if you want any more details.

Anyway it was still good to see you the other day and still think Scott is a jerk, travel safe!

Rob Enderle
Principal Analyst
Enderle Group

The documents don't show a reply from Ballmer. But later that day, Goffe got a copy of the message and forwarded it to his colleagues.

"No matter what we do now, we look like the bad guy," he wrote. "If Dell reaches out to Rob, then it looks like we bullied them into it. If Dell doesn't reach out then they tacitly agree with Rob's whacky view of the world."

On the phone this week, Enderle stood by his opinion, saying it was ultimately supported by Windows Vista's January 2007 launch.

"It just felt like it was broken as they rolled to market," he said. "I think if they’d addressed what they needed to address, it would have been vastly more successful."

Just out of curiosity, who was the Scott that Enderle described as a "jerk" in his message to Ballmer? It was Sun Microsystems' Scott McNealy, Enderle confirmed. He explained that his comment to Ballmer came after watching the executives interact at an event.

For the record, Enderle said he stands by that opinion, as well.

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