What to watch in Seattle tech in '09 |
Connect with TechFlash on our Facebook page for all the latest technology news headlines and commentary, plus information and access to special events, photos from events, promotions and more.
Monday: The Good: What went right in Seattle tech in 2008.
Tuesday: The Bad and Ugly: Where things went wrong, and how they got worse from there.
Wednesday: What to watch in Seattle tech in the year ahead.
What bears watching in Seattle technology in 2009? That's easy. It's the economy, of course. The global financial crisis is continuing to ripple through the regional tech industry, forcing nearly every company to adjust to a new economic reality.
But in reality, the answer is a lot more nuanced and interesting than that. And apart from the economic turmoil, there will still be plenty of promising technologies to monitor, big corporate moves to anticipate, and geeky gadgets to drool over.
These are some of the areas we'll be tracking in the next year.
CUTBACKS: October and November brought a series of layoffs at Seattle-area technology companies -- nothing like the dot-com meltdown, but still substantial enough to make it clear that the belt-tightening is serious.
We're anticipating another wave after the holidays. Rumors have already started about possible cuts at Microsoft next month. And venture-backed companies that have yet to turn a profit may be forced to further reduce expenses as it becomes harder to raise capital. The only question is how deep the cuts will go.
ONLINE ADVERTISING: Many local tech companies have pinned their business models on the online ad market, from startups counting on it as their sole source of revenue to larger companies looking to ads as a key driver of growth. And the outlook for 2009 is clearly gloomy, with analysts substantially reducing their projections.
One key will be watching to see which segments of the market get hit the hardest. A popular theory is that premium brand campaigns will continue to be more vulnerable than search ads to cutbacks in advertising budgets, because the financial return isn't as direct.
MICROSOFT ONLINE: It's abundantly clear that Microsoft is no longer interested in acquiring all of Yahoo. The question going into next year is whether the Redmond company can buy or partner with Yahoo's search business, joining forces against Google. That could help determine whether Microsoft goes ahead with its Live Search rebranding efforts -- whether it's Kumo or some other name.
In the meantime, it will be worth watching Qi Lu, the former Yahoo executive who recently joined Microsoft as president of its Online Services Business. How much of an impact will he be able to make, and how quickly?
OBAMA'S ENERGY POLICY: President-elect Barack Obama has pledged to reduce the country's dependence on foreign oil, which could spark a new era of entreprenerualism in technologies such as solar, geothermal and wind energy. Be on the lookout for government support of clean tech -- new programs that could create opportunities for startups and big companies alike.
STEVE JOBS: The recent news that Jobs wouldn't be delivering the keynote at the upcoming Macworld Expo stirred new concerns about his health. To be sure, many other factors could be at work here. Maybe Apple just didn't consider this year worthy of a "Stevenote," delegating the responsibilities to lieutenant Phil Schiller instead.
Whether or not the concerns about Jobs' health are justified, they bear watching because of the potential impact on Apple and, by extension, the rest of the tech industry.
AMAZON KINDLE. One of the most hotly anticipated gadgets of 2009 is Amazon.com's next-generation Kindle electronic book reader, expected in the first quarter. The Kindle faces growing competition from the Sony Reader, Apple's iPhone (which offers an array of e-book applications) and others. Will the Kindle stay on top or become one of many e-book options for consumers?
Amazon's rollout of the next-gen Kindle -- and its design, features and price point -- will hold many of the answers.
IPOs: As we noted in yesterday's 2008 review, zero companies from the Seattle region or the state made initial public offerings during the past year. Will anyone break through the malaise to make a new run at the public markets? This promises to be one key barometer of the regional economy in the year ahead.
WINDOWS 7: The key issue here is timing. Microsoft has said it will release Windows 7, the next version of its flagship PC operating system, no later than early 2010. But it's increasingly clear that the company is hoping to get Windows 7 on the market in 2009, in time for the next holiday shopping season.
Look to the upcoming Consumer Electronics Show for more clues. If the company showcases Windows 7 there and releases the first beta, it's a safe bet that the new OS is on track for an '09 release. In fact, it wouldn't be unreasonable to expect Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer to announce the release schedule at CES.
iPHONE: Apple's mobile device is the big tech toy of the moment. In 2009, look for the company to build on its momentum with continued enhancements. For all the iPhone's features and third-party apps, there's still room for improvement in such areas as software stability and battery life. And one peripheral we'd like to see is a supported Bluetooth keyboard.
The broader question: Will Microsoft or anyone else be able to come up with anything to effectively counter the iPhone brand and technology?
CLOUD COMPUTING: The concept of delivering computing on demand from remote data centers gained steam in 2008, with local companies such as Microsoft and Amazon competing against such players as Google and Salesforce.com. In the next year, it will be interesting to see if any of these companies takes an indisputable leadership position. The economy also promises to be a major factor affecting the potential growth in this area.
BILL GATES: We launched TechFlash in October with the scoop on bgC3, the "think tank" created by Bill Gates to formalize the third office he created apart from Microsoft and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Gates' lieutenants downplay the significance of that entity, but whatever its ultimate purpose, Gates' post-Microsoft activities certainly bear watching in the next year.
What will you be watching most closely in the coming year? Feel free to offer your perspective in the comments below.
If you are commenting using a Facebook account, your profile information may be displayed with your comment depending on your privacy settings. By leaving the 'Post to Facebook' box selected, your comment will be published to your Facebook profile in addition to the space below.