Will holiday shoppers spend more online this year than they did last year, right after the economy took a tumble? ComScore seems to think so. The internet analytics firm is forecasting that online retail spending in the November-December period will grow 3 percent to $28.8 billion, from the same two months a year ago.

Maybe that's why Amazon kicked off Black Friday deals on a Monday.

ComScore said online spending is already up 2 percent for the first 22 days of the holiday shopping season. But don't expect an e-commerce explosion:

“The beginning of the online holiday shopping season has gotten off to a positive start, which is a nice improvement over the slightly negative growth rates we’ve experienced through much of 2009,” said comScore chairman, Gian Fulgoni. “Nonetheless, online spending this holiday season will likely be tempered by the stark reality of 10-percent unemployment and less disposable income in many consumers’ wallets.”

ComScore also pulled out some interesting tidbits from a recent consumer survey: 45 percent of respondents are seeing "more discounts, sales and promotions" this year versus last, and 73 percent called free shipping important to their online purchases.

Amazon and Wal-Mart have been engaged in a price war that started with books and DVDs and has expanded into other categories. It will be interesting to see how the heavy discounting on some items affects retailers' bottom line.

AdvertisingAge recently described this year's holiday shopping season as a "massive game of chicken" between consumers and retailers, and explored how the "traditional boundaries" around high-profile shopping days like post-Thanksgiving Black Friday and Cyber Monday are breaking down:

Consumers are planning more and earlier to get the best deals this holiday season, starting their shopping and online price comparisons weeks ahead of last year. Retailers, meanwhile, have been more conservative with inventory even if they're offering what some observers see as the best Black Friday deals ever, hoping to avoid big late-season and post-season markdowns. Black Friday will go a long way toward deciding which side comes out on top.

Here's more data from comScore:

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