Guest Post: Dark economic clouds have green linings

Denis Du Bois

Denis Du Bois: "The Internet is dead, long live the Internet," declared a Fortune headline in 2000, as the dot-com bubble was bursting. The Internet would soon prove that it was alive and well, and better off for the shake-up.

So it shall be with the green revolution. Yes, cleantech stocks are down today.

But lower oil prices or a drop in the stock market cannot stop the powerful momentum pushing the revolution forward. The world will continue to develop, and emerging nations will go on adopting modern lifestyles.

Over the next two decades, global energy demand will grow by close to 50 percent. Meanwhile, climate change is happening faster than predicted. And as of earlier this month, change has come to America.

Simply having the Bush administration out of the way -- with its secret energy commissions, bought scientists and report censors -- will make a visible difference. 

It's frustrating when smart people declare that wind or solar is "dead" because oil prices are down. It demonstrates a narrow comprehension of economics and energy.

The competitiveness of renewable power has no relationship to recent swings in the price of crude. The U.S. generates only one percent of its electricity using liquid petroleum fuels. Financing is hard to get in every industry. That's why wind projects are slowing, and some utility-scale solar arrays are on hold.

Biofuels, on the other hand, will face additional problems until oil prices resume their climb, which will likely happen now that the U.S. presidential election is over.

There is very good reason for optimism, especially in the renewable electricity and energy efficiency sectors.

Utilities need more renewables. More than half of the electricity sold in the United States is subject to renewable portfolio standards, many of which ramp up.

Businesses need more energy efficiency. Electricity rates are rising. Customers and insurers are asking about carbon footprints. Buildings constructed today must remain competitive 40 years from now, and that means they must be green.

These are trends that will not stop while the economy is on hold. Another good cause for optimism is aversion to risk. Companies identifying their exposure in this downturn are finding it in the carbon content of their operations and supply chains.

A high carbon-of-goods-sold ratio presents a real risk of taxes or limits, very soon. In Europe, carbon limits already are in place. Green road to recovery Europeans believe investment and job creation are the way to restore their economies to health.

Fighting global warming involves investing in renewable energy. It also means hiring a workforce to make every square meter of buildings and every kilometer of travel more energy efficient.

Americans know the choices we make today define the choices we have tomorrow. Just ask Rust Belt governors. They've courted cleantech companies, not to save the ice caps, but to replace lost manufacturing jobs.

Barack Obama has vowed to bring change to our energy system. His administration will work with strong Democratic majorities in the House and Senate, where energy has been a top issue for the past five years.

The next five years will be a defining moment for the green revolution. Like the Internet, it is assuming its role as a mature, mainstream industry. The old green is dead. Long live the new, necessary, profitable, unstoppable green.

Denis Du Bois is editor of Energy Priorities Magazine and a frequent writer on topics related to the clean tech industry. Chair of the MIT Enterprise Forum Northwest, Du Bois frequently spends time on an off-grid solar getaway in the Cascade Range. Guest posts are the opinions of their authors, and don't necessarily represent the viewpoint of TechFlash or its staff.